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如果我是他，我会在今天发表声明，拒绝奖。
参与政治生活的人都认为自己是正确的，手中掌握着真理口里宣扬着箴言。谁的政治理想能够得以实现，理想本身的优劣或者所谓的科学与否并不是唯一的成功因素，恰恰相反，理想本身只是一个基础的、占比重很小的因素。当冲入宽广的场地内，所有的闸门吱吱嘎嘎的落下，你已经别无退路，必须干掉对手，这就是政治角斗场。看台上的观众会在意你的观点吗？观点只不过是你的外表，你可以长得帅，也可以长的不帅，这都无关紧要，重要的是你要率领战友，蛊惑群众，展现英勇，然获得胜利。
他陷入困境，11年的刑期等于让他的人生出局了；他的同事们凋零四处，在墙外残喘。他们的事业陷入绝境，奄奄一息，影响力越来越小，被抽象成为一个符号，而一旦成为符号之后，就不可避免的被理所应当的贴上各种标签，然后被对手精心的涂抹，直至面目全非成为不再被提起的历史。这就是政治生活，政治生涯。
挪威人给了他有生以来最好的机会，如果他不被杀头的话，那么这也是他唯一的机会了。他被推到体育场的中间，无数聚光灯只照在他一个人的身上，他是最耀眼的，这一次他将要面对全世界的听众，而最为重要的是，这些听众中会包括国人，那些从来不知道他，甚至从来不想知道他的国人，他终于有机会让他们听到自己的声音了！
这是他，以及他的同事们奋斗多年，付出无数艰苦努力之后得到的机会，是命运的垂青和历史的赐予。并不是所有身处这个角斗场的人都能获得这样的机会，有多少无声无息的枯萎，爆裂？所以，如何把握这次机会，延长自己停留在这个舞台上的时间，吸引到更多观众的注意，比获奖理由、庆祝获奖重要多了。获奖不是结局，而是开局，从这一刻，你才算正式步入这个世界。
如果像现在这样，接受几家境外媒体的采访，然后呢，就没有然后了。国人听不到你说了什么而老外谁他妈在乎你说了什么？你不过是又一个没抓住机会的符号人物，三天之后就下架的促销商品而已。这是惯常的做法，名为老生常谈，没人稀罕。
如果现在选择拒绝，那么将会马上赢得比获奖更为广泛、强烈的关注。他拒绝了！怎么可能？！他怎么会拒绝呢？！这样会让自己的声音更响亮，传播更远，show的时间会加倍，让更多的人记住这个人，他不是一个普通的接受者，他是一个斗士！吸引眼球比什么都重要，这是政治斗争的根本。你必须活跃，而且必须活跃在人群的前面，这样做才有机会去实践，去实现理想。
诺贝尔的这个奖项一直就有明显的政治意图，今年这个奖，明显打压当局。时局的孱弱和无能在一系列外交事件上已经暴露无遗，挪威人的做法多多少少有藐视的意味。如果让他们碰个软钉子，可以在国人中树立相当的威信形象——一个来自民间的个人，对老外说不。纵然这种做法可能牵强可笑，但是其对国人心理所激起的波动不可小觑，可以扭转一个异见者的形象，而树立民族主义者。民众是喜欢一个喋喋不休文绉绉的书生，还是喜欢一个强硬的民族英雄呢？不用担心拒绝会影响与国外支持力量的关系，只要你能够鲜亮的一直站在当局的对面，就不必担心没有支持者，更何况老外本身就存心不良，他们在上一分钟恨不得把你扔进粪坑，在下一分钟会满含热泪的拥抱你。
如果拒绝，那么可能产生某种和当局的交易。让他发表声明，对当局来说也多少有一点诱惑力的。虽然这不会让他获得自由，但是这可以交易来一些松动和说话的机会，面对国人说话的机会。这是多么重要啊，哪怕有一点可能都要去争取这样的机会！你他妈在墙外，在推特上说五万句都抵不上在墙内说五句。当然，当局不会允许你说出那些话的，你也不要这么书生意气。交易就是交易，说什么并不重要，重要的是要让更多的人，让那些只看晚报的人知道你的存在！只要达成这一点就足够了！为这个目标所作出的任何牺牲都是值得的，而且必须不断地去努力。“讲到长征，请问有什么意义呢？我们说，长征是历史纪录上的第一次，长征是宣言书，长征是宣传队，长征是播种机。”
至于说到如何来拒绝，用什么样的理由，这个要他自己来决定，成败的关键全在于此，这就看他的能力和造化了。如果我来想，会有几个要点，要给老外软钉子吃，同时适时表现出一点民族自尊心，甚至可以采用时局常用的“别干涉内政”之类的套话，但是要明确表达出不一样的含义，要表现的坚毅、果断。这方面吧，多看毛主席著作。
退一万步说，要是我，肯定会拒绝，因为有个最简单的理由，拒绝肯定比接受更牛逼啊，这符合我的人生观。
这是他占主动的机会，因为掌握主动权，所以他占得先机；纸媒固然牢不可破，但是网络还是存在突破口的，他在传媒方面只是略弱。这是一次展现个人魅力的时机，英雄造时势的机会。
这是出戏，希望他能有精彩的演出，不辜负幕后同事们的默默付出，投资者的赌博，以及台下观众的热烈期盼。
富裕層の結果、残念ながら小さな子どもたちは、彼らが必要とするすべてでは何も得ています。
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